| SHILOH INDUSTRIES Add to My Watchlist | (NSDQ: SHLO) |
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| Thu, Nov 19, 2009 | ||
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Shiloh Industries enters fourth amendment of its credit agreement
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| Fri, Sep 04, 2009 | ||
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Seven Year Low in EBITDA for Shiloh Industries - StockTrendNews.com e... | |
| Wed, Sep 02, 2009 | ||
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Free Cash Flow Turns Negative for Shiloh Industries' Third Quarter - StockTrendNews.com f... | |
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Three Year Low in Cash Flow from Operations for Shiloh Industries - StockTrendNews.com c... | |
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OPS Ranking of "1" Reiteration for Shiloh Industries - StockTrendNews.com o... | |
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| Mon, Dec 15, 2008 | ||
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Weekly Planner: Heading to Zero - Wall Street Greek | |
| Mon, May 19, 2008 | ||
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Wall Street Week Ahead - Kaminis Called Stock Market Bottom
As Wall Street rallies in stealth for some, your Wall Street Greek reminds you that Markos Kaminis predicted on March 10 (the stock market's bottom) that it was time to "buy the news." Wall Street rallied into the close on Friday, and turned in another positive week. The Dow Jones Industrials closed 1.9% higher through the five-day period, while the S&P 500 moved up 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.4%. The Nasdaq is up 17% from its low of March 10. Might the end truly be here for the bears? In this reactionary, counter-reactionary world, I have found criticism from both bulls and bears over the course of the last twelve months. So-called "experts" and novices alike have jumped down my throat via email and commentary to my articles at the site when I prognosticated correctly ahead of the game and against the herd on both occasions. Did you know that I once again called another economic forecast to the very day. See this article published on March 10, 2008, the exact day the market bottomed. Wall Street Greek predicted the very bottom of the stock market in 2008. If you've been reading, you know this is just another correct call in a series of prescient economic forecasts we've made. Remember, it was " The Greek" who began warning of this economic downturn as early as the winter of 2006. Then it was I again who forecast stock market recovery early this year, despite my expectations for ongoing economic softness. So, with all the headless chickens running around investing in stocks, I have to wonder why then investors find it logical that the even-keeled Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch are the greatest of all time? The key to successful long-term investing is in not letting emotions dictate your money flow, which is much harder said than done. Heck, equity mutual funds were still reporting outflows of capital as recently as the week before last. Meanwhile, stocks have been on the rise since March 10th. I bet you are surprised by that news, because during that span you've very likely been moving your money out stocks. It's a stealth rally if you are Main Street news centric, but for those of us well-versed in market phenomenon, we saw this coming. Plenty of capital is still on the sidelines, so as the herd gets on board, there should be plenty of opportunity still for latecomers. Even so, let's not rule out further market reconsideration, since GDP will be revised next week. Finally, our most important forecast yet: we view an Iran event as probable over the next few months, and that's not going to lead to peaceful times for investors, or anyone for that matter. The Week Ahead The coming week offers a relatively light load of economic data, but includes important information for economic forecasts. Monday On Monday, Leading Economic Indicators for April will provide insight into just how realistic the recession scenario is. Yes, that's right, we're not officially in a recession yet, though we expect that upon revision of first quarter GDP next week, there's a chance we'll see the economy contracted. Remember though, we need two quarters of contraction for an official "recession" label. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for April Leading Indicators to have fallen 0.1% (rose 0.1% in March) despite the stock market's rise through the period. We remind you again, in case you missed it, market action is a leading economic indicator. Internationally, markets in Canada, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will be closed on Monday. Earnings season continues here in the states, driven greatly by the reporting of retailers for their first quarter ended in April. Monday's schedule includes Lowe's ( Tuesday On Tuesday, State Street's Investor Confidence reading will be reported for May (April's was 72.8). This measure is rather current, since it is tallied on the second Tuesday of each month. Also, it's important to note that it measures the level of actual risk in investment portfolios. Indications are that there remain significant levels of cash within portfolios. Barron's reported that funds equal to 26% of total stock market value currently reside in cash alternatives, marking the greatest such level since 2003. We very well may see an uptick in investor confidence, but consumer sentiment, which was reported on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, indicated consumers feel as bad now as they did in the early eighties. Remember though, sentiment is a lagging indicator, so that when consumers and investors think things are most dire, the economy/market is usually already in recovery. Guess what, we are already in recovery. The perhaps early cyclical heavy Nasdaq is doing especially well, up some 17% since March 10. The Producer Price Index will also reach the wires on Tuesday, but this inflation gauge is likely to offer little interest to the market ahead of the report. Investors have already been primed by last week's moderate consumer price metric. We noted on the Wall Street Greek website this past Wednesday that CPI benefited from petroleum price back up that we already know reversed itself in May. At the same time, oil services pricing increased, as did food inflation. Thus, we found little reason to cheer the data, despite the market's positive interpretation. PPI is still worth paying attention to though, as producer prices continue to eventually find their way to your wallet. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for April's measure to have risen by 0.4% over March. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is seen 0.2% higher. These barometers were up 1.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in March. Of course, the weekly ICSC-UBS Same Store Sales Report is due before the market open on Tuesday. Remember, last week we estimated that the sharp rise in sales was probably a weather influenced figure, and we forecast a return to weak sales would likely result last week. We were right. Sales were only up 0.5% year-over-year last week, and fell 1.0% from the week before. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, a man not afraid to speak his mind, will address a group in New Orleans; the topic, the economic outlook. The Japanese Central Bank has an important decision to make Tuesday, and is seen holding rates steady at 0.5%. In the increasingly controversial Democratic Party contest, Obama and Hillary slug it out in Kentucky and Oregon. While markets will be closed in India and Indonesia, Tuesday's U.S. earnings schedule includes news from Analog Devices ( Wednesday The Federal Open Market Committee April meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, and the notes always offer economists material to debate with in regards to what the Fed will do next. As a result, it moves stocks, so pay attention to that on Wednesday afternoon at our website. Look for the weekly reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association (Mortgage Activity) and the Energy Information Administration (Petroleum Status). Oil jumped back into record territory last week, driven again by geopolitical concerns and a perceived negative news report from Saudi Arabia. The Arabs were viewed as in defiance of President Bush when they said they would increase oil output if demand called for it. This was interpreted as a denial to Bush's request for more oil now. However, The Greek interprets it this way, they will boost output when the war starts with Iran. That's actually good news, in a bad scenario. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh grabs a microphone in Washington, as he addresses the use of the fed-funds rate tool in times of economic need. While we're on DC, a Senate committee will interview oil company executives on the price situation. House of Representatives committees will be busy studying sovereign wealth funds and sub-prime mortgage concerns. While the Chilean market is shut, Wednesday's earnings reports here include BJ's Wholesale Club ( Thursday After jobless claims were noted at 371K last week, this week's consensus view for new claims filings adds up to 370K. Also look for the weekly Natural Gas Report from the EIA at 10:30. Energy investors will want to keep a look out for the government's annual hurricane forecast, though it's been far from accurate in recent years. Fed-man Randall Kroszner addresses a group of bankers in Florida, and Treasury Secretary Paulson participates in a panel discussion in Chicago. Markets will be closed in Austria, Brazil, Poland and Frankfurt, Germany. Thursday's earnings reports include Aeropostale ( Friday On Friday, we'll see if this week's positive Housing Starts report has a solid base. Existing Home Sales for the month of April are set for release. We theorized on Friday, in our article entitled " Housing Starts See Seasonal Impact Despite Adjustment," that housing benefited from an abnormal current period that applied an irrelevant average seasonal adjustment. We were in fact the sole voice discussing this possibility, while everyone else just passed it off as an anomaly without offering solid basis. We might see the same type of positive housing news in this Friday's report, so be wary when the market starts betting on housing recovery prematurely. Bloomberg's consensus sees the annual pace of existing home sales running at 4.85 million in April, compared to 4.93 in March. Bond markets close at 2:00 p.m. on Friday, ahead of the Memorial Day weekend holiday. The sole noteworthy earnings report we could find for Friday was Nordic American Tanker Shipping ( Keep up with daily market happenings with us all week long. Please see our disclosure at www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com. Article also interests AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD. 
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| Mon, Feb 25, 2008 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Stagflation or ETF Capital Flow Perversion?
Despite a rocky ride last week, stocks ended up pretty much where they started the period. The activity was symbolic of the overriding confusion that pervades the market today. Investors are faced with a conundrum. While they attempt to gauge the economic condition, forecast its future and anticipate stock market action, they also have to contend with a rare phenomenon. You see, in times of economic deterioration, price pressure typically eases as a natural consequence. However, while the broad indices including the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are well off their October 2007 highs, commodity prices are breaking records. That’s unheard of! Actually, it’s not, but it’s rare. Stagflation is the term for it, and it reared its ugly head from the murky depths last week. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index, which measures Philly area manufacturing, posted a negative 24.0 reading. This matched the weak figure seen in the New York manufacturing sector not long before. The news was not so troubling in isolation, or at least not surprising, but it became disconcerting when the Philly Fed reported its manufacturers continue to see input price increases and also continue to raise their own prices, despite product demand softness. Investors have a choice between two devils though. If manufacturers do not pass through price increase, their margins get squeezed and they must consider more significant cost consolidation in the form of plant closures and layoffs. Perhaps signifying that they have borne all they could, prices are now rising on the consumer level. Manufacturers are already right alongside housing in terms of the rate they have been shedding jobs. Price increases are manifesting in the food industry and across manufacturing now. Last week’s reporting of the Consumer Price Index only confirmed what we have seen anecdotally, as prices increased more than expected in January. So what’s so scary about this Greek? Well, the Federal Reserve is in the process of cutting interest rates with a goal to inspire economic expansion. By lowering rates, the cost of borrowing decreases and things are supposed to get easier for everyone. Of course, after the subprime debacle, lenders have otherwise tightened lending standards. Still, rate cuts lower the cost of capital for corporations and are a positive for their share values, usually. What’s different this time, or what’s thought to be different, is globalization has reached a critical threshold, and economic decoupling has set forth. Now, developed markets are still tightly tied to America, and that’s why the U.K. and Europe are seeing similar slowdowns to ours. However, in the large emerging markets of India, China and others, domestic market demand has gained traction. Even as the United States slows, these important consuming populations, driven by an emerging middle class, continue draining global commodity resources. Capital Finds Profit While The Greek believes this unique change is playing a role, we also expect capital flows are exacerbating that impact. Capital finds profits you see, and with the availability of new exchange traded funds (ETFs), more investors can now participate in commodity investment. As a requirement, many of these funds must own the underlying commodity, and investor demand in ETFs drives substantially higher and synthetic demand for the commodities. The Greek believes an important cure for this potential driver of stagflation or hyperinflation will have to be increased regulation of ETFs. Otherwise, the return of high interest rates driven by inflation could stymie the global economy and even eventually lead to wars over basic resource supplies. The Week Ahead The coming week will offer key housing, consumer and producer data to swallow. Monday Existing home sales are set for Monday report and new home sales for Wednesday. Recent market reaction to housing data has been one indicative of overriding bearish sentiment. Investors have come to expect poor results, and do not generally penalize home builders or the broader market for weak information any longer. This sets the stage for upside surprise eventually, but it’s still early for that in our view. Bloomberg's survey of economists pegs existing home sales for January at an annual pace of 4.84 million, compared to 4.89 million in December. The Fed goes on parade this week, and Governors Mishkin and Kroszner will serve as Co-Grand Marshals. The two will take separate podiums on Monday. The day's most noteworthy earnings reports include Healthcare Realty Trust ( The remainder of the earnings schedule includes FirstEnergy ( Tuesday The Fed parade continues on Tuesday, when Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn grabs a microphone. Remember it was Kohn who set the pace when Bernanke seemed lost in neutrality. The Producer Price Index for the month of January will hit the wires on Tuesday, but this news should reflect what we have already seen from regional Fed districts. Also, last week’s CPI report was more important, in our opinion, as it showed the prices borne at the consumer level. Still, January's PPI is expected to show an increase of 0.3%, and to post a rise of 0.2% when excluding food and energy price change. The International Council of Shopping Centers will post its weekly same-store sales figure on Tuesday morning. Growth accelerated a bit in the prior week's report, up to 1.9% year-over-year. Consumer confidence will be measured on Tuesday through the Conference Board’s survey of February. The consensus is looking for a measure of 81.3 this time around, versus 87.9 in January. As confidence and consumer spending ease, we've been expecting tough times to befall retailers, and they have. Sharper Image ( Some of the other earnings reports you will want to prepare for include DISH Network ( Wednesday The Fed parade climaxes Wednesday and Thursday when Chairman Bernanke addresses the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee in successive order. Durable Goods Orders for January are set for Wednesday release, and are expected to show a significant drop-off of ordering activity. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for a 3.5% decrease in orders month-to-month. New home sales for January are seen setting a slightly lower mark, to an annual pace of 600K. This compares to 604K in December. Wednesday also of course brings the regular reports on mortgage activity and petroleum inventory. Both matter this time around. With long rates rising and spreads widening, recently decent mortgage activity could now find a brick wall. Oil prices have risen despite large inventory building. Rumblings out of OPEC about a possible March production cut may be aiding that a bit, and certainly the Turkish incursion into Northern Iraq and refinery explosion in the U.S. helped support prices last week. As this past news gets older, we have to wonder how oil prices can hold up. T. Boone Pickens, for one, also sees oil prices softening from here. Or, is inflation the key catalyst now, and if Iran continues to defy the U.N., perhaps the floor is not too far a trip. Wednesday's earnings slate includes Aqua America ( Thursday GDP for the fourth quarter will be re-reported, adjusted after the advance report showed just 0.6% growth. A significant revision higher or lower would be important to the stock market. The consensus is looking for a slight increase to 0.7%. Weekly initial jobless claims have been trending higher, and the four-week moving average jumped more than 10K last week. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for a small increase in the weekly figure to 350K. The natural gas report should arrive just on time Thursday at 10:30. Natural gas, which had been lagging oil as stocks filled, has had a noticeable increase of late. At $9.32/MMBtu, a spike is forming. Thursday's earnings include AIG ( Friday Just when you thought the Fed was out of gun power, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart addresses subprime mortgages. Consumer confidence will be measured for the second time this week through Friday’s reporting of February confidence by the University of Michigan. Bloomberg's consensus sees confidence inching higher to 70.0, from 69.6 in January. Perhaps the most important report of the week, Personal Income and Outlays for January will be posted on Friday morning. The market will be concerned about both figures, with income hoped to be moderate and indicating a non-threatening wage inflation scenario. Personal consumption of course will help investors gauge how well the consumer is holding up. In January, weekly same-store sales data recorded by the International Council of Shopping Centers was relatively weak, so the same news should be found in personal outlays. Perhaps the most important piece of information from the report will arrive in the PCE Deflator, the pricing gauge viewed most important by the Federal Reserve. The Fed targets a rate between 1-2%, but will likely tolerate a higher rate if necessary in times of economic strife, according to member white papers. The market probably doesn't remember that fact though, so watch out. After sad news from both Philly and New York area manufacturing, the National Association of Purchasing Managers - Chicago, is expected to show the Midwest teetering on the fence of contraction and expansion. Bloomberg's consensus is projecting a measure of 50.0 for February. With commodity prices rising across the spectrum, the Farm Prices Report at 3:00 p.m. Friday should not be overlooked. Friday's earnings include Petrobras ( We hope we have provided another valuable weekly market-moving event planner, and suggest checking in with us during for our daily previews. Help us grow our grass roots effort by visiting the site, clicking the small envelope at the bottom of this article and sending notice to your friends about the Wall Street Greek value add. Receive Wall Street Greek FREE via email by subscribing here . ( disclosure ) 
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| Mon, Aug 20, 2007 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Fed Half Devils
"It's all because of doing things by halves," he would often say to me, and "saying things by halves, that the world is in the mess is in today. Do things properly by God! One good knock for each nail and you'll win through! God hates a halfdevil ten times more than an archdevil!" Nikos Kazantzakis' Alexis Zorbas Wall Street Greek proudly borrows these words from Kazantzakis, and we thank his family and Simon and Schuster, who published the book, "Zorba the Greek", in 1953. We also hope the film producers of the 1964 masterpiece, Michael Cacoyannis and the late Anthony Quinn approve. We recently discovered that Mr. Quinn, one of our personal favorite actors, was our neighbor as well here in New York. We know surely that Zorbas would enjoy our reference. In fact, he would very likely declare, "My words are like a gift to the world. From the second they leave my lips, they are free to go and wander, to find and inspire ears that need a good tug and minds that need inspiration." We have always found Zorbas' words inspiring. Over the weekend, as we contemplated the significance of the Federal Reserve action of last week, and the many interpretations of it from the scores of talking heads who are paid to respond as quickly and conclusively as possible, we grasped desperately for some conclusion of our own. Is the Federal Reserve body genius or fool we pondered... In the end, we decided that it was likely somewhere in between, in the gray area almost always overlooked in today's society. We believe that our own confusion is representative of how the market will feel and act during the weeks that follow. Also, we are sure that any doubt that exists is the fault of the Fed, and it's half action. But, let's take a scientific approach, and try to weigh both sides of the argument, one of which we buy into more than the other. The weaker argument, in the Greek's view, is that the Fed action will have no impact. We think it's weaker, but its basis has merit. A fifty basis point cut to the discount rate will help move capital within the commercial paper market, and at least unclog one pipe. However, if the CP market were one clog, then there's an entire plumbing system here that is in need of repair. The Fed is taking a targeted approach to things, when we believe a major overhaul is necessary. When Bear Stearns ( The Fed is plugging up leaks in a dam with its fingers. Eventually, it's going to have to fix the damned dam, or it's going to run out of fingers. The real problem here is that mortgage borrowers are defaulting on their loans, and it doesn't really matter whose fault it is. You can blame borrowers for signing contracts they couldn't fulfill, or the mortgage brokers for pushing bad loans in bad ways; or you can blame the middlemen for packaging them up into securities; or you can blame the institutional investors who bought them and allowed the market for fool's gold to grow. When it's all said and done, with economic recession threatening, the pending default of too many homeowners is the root of both the problem before us and its cure. We must address that issue to secure the dam. Those who argue that a drastic Fed target rate cut is the wrong choice in a moral dilemma are missing the point entirely. The moral dilemma has already been broken, and it happened when all those parties made all those decisions unchecked by federal regulators. It's not up to the Fed now to play regulator OR judge. It's up to the Fed to help seven million mortgage borrowers renegotiate out of their loans into something more manageable. Because, if we do not, we will allow a process to continue that will drive softer consumer spending, retail and other consumer service consolidation, rising unemployment and broader economic distress. The other side of the argument is that the Fed has somehow signaled that it will give up its crusade against inflation if necessary to preserve economic growth. We believe that's always been the case, despite the stubborn, if not ignorant commentary from William Poole. The problem is that it will likely take "financial calamity" to spur that action. Still, in the near term, the market will likely interpret this latest move as an indication that the Fed has our backs. From this, the market should strengthen, but only until it becomes clear that the Fed has not solved the problem yet. Then, once again, the market will question whether the Fed is willing to fix the real problem and drop the target rate sharply and decisively. We expect William Poole and his friends to help drive market participants to raise the query we refer to. Still, the market will likely be more confident of Fed action on that day than it was before the market opened last Friday, when futures were indicating imminent crash. Now, let's take a look at the week ahead... During an especially light week for economic data, July Leading Indicators will be reported by The Conference Board on Monday morning at 10:00 EDT. Ironically, the report will be greatly influenced by stale data. It's expected to show a rise of 0.4%, thanks to July's stock market gains and improved consumer confidence, both of which are expected to have waned in August. Leading Indicators fell 0.3% in June. President Bush is expected to meet with the leaders of Mexico and Canada to discuss regional issues. Topics of discussion are likely to include Arctic territorial disputes, where Russia recently started a land claim race. The believed to be resource rich region has since drawn counter claims from the United States, Canada and Denmark. For those of you unaware, Greenland is a territory of Denmark, thus providing the otherwise tiny nation with good cause to pursue the case. The earnings week will be kicked off with reports from Lowe's ( On Tuesday, the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS report their weekly same-store sales data. Last week's report showed a 0.9% decrease week-to-week and 2.3% increase over the prior year result. The consumer is clearly softening in our view, as evidenced by the slower growth of retail spending. This should be concerning to the Federal Reserve, as consumer spending is the key underpinning of the American economy. At 10:00 a.m., the State Street Investor Confidence Index will be reported for August. The index is based on the levels of risk in investment portfolios through the previous Wednesday. In light of the period under consideration and the fact that retail investors withdrew some $2 billion from stock funds last week, we expect the index to fall below last month's reading of 87.0. Though William Poole may be locked in a sound proof room, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker is scheduled to address the Risk Management Association in Charlotte, N.C. He'll be discussing the economic outlook. Recall, Lacker has been very hawkish in months past, so this could make for a few interesting quotes. Shareholders of Tribune ( At 7:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports its weekly Purchase Applications. While the general trend is influenced by housing demand, weekly data often reflects short-term changes in interest rates. At 10:30 a.m., the Energy Information Administration will offer its weekly Petroleum Status Report. Uncertainty surrounding the path of Hurricane Dean deterred weakness in oil commodity pricing last week. Now that it appears very likely Dean will keep on a southerly route, oil prices would be expected to soften. Only, the Fed's recent action, and a growing view that the Fed will act to cut the Fed Funds Target Rate on or before their September meeting, could help to build a new floor under oil now. Wednesday's earnings schedule includes Abercrombie & Fitch ( Thursday's Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report is expected to show a measure 320,000, compared to the prior week level of 322,000. Last week's measure exceeded expectations and may already reflect the beginnings of consolidation in retail that we've been expecting, as well as job losses in housing and mortgage finance. Housing has been somewhat deceiving, we believe due to high levels of illegals within the workforce. The same goes for the restaurant sector. The EIA will report Natural Gas Inventory at its usual 10:30 slot. 21 Bcf was added to storage last week, and if not for the hurricane, we expect natural gas related shares would not have recovered to end the week. However, the tide of renewed economic enthusiasm also lifted all ships on Friday. In international news, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to conclude a two-day meeting on Thursday, and in light of recent market turmoil, the BOJ is expected to hold rates steady. In company specific news that the market might find greater implication in, Home Depot ( Thursday's earnings schedule includes Aeropostale ( Friday brings two important economic news bits. At 8:30 a.m., Bloomberg's consensus of economists expects July Durable Goods Orders to post a rise of 1.0%. June orders rose 1.4%, falling short of expectations for an increase of 2.0%. We anticipate durable goods orders for July and August will trend lower, and we continue to anticipate slowing domestic economic growth to dictate a relatively weak order flow through the second half of the year. At 10:00 a.m., July New Home Sales are expected to show an annual pace of 820,000, down 1.7% from June's 834k. We continue to anticipate that consolidation within the home building industry will impact new home construction, and with the aid of price reduction, finally allow inventory to dissipate slowly. Friday's earnings report slate includes AnnTaylor Stores ( Receive Wall Street Greek via email by subscribing here . If you change your mind, it's easy to unsubscribe. We respect your privacy and will not share your information with any third party. ( disclosure ) 
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